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Centrifuges Are Key to an Iran Nuclear Deal
(New York Times) David E. Sanger - Wendy R. Sherman, the undersecretary of state for political affairs, put together what she calls the Rubik's cube of a deal that would guarantee Iran would not have the technology and fuel on hand to race for a bomb. Or, that if that race began - a "breakout" in the nuclear world - the U.S., Israel, and the Sunni Arab states that deeply fear a nuclear Iran would have a year or more to react, diplomatically or militarily. The Iranians have come up with a formula for dealing with their heavy water reactor in Arak that should sharply limit the amount of plutonium it produces. But the plant would remain open, a face-saving step. There are also reports of an emerging solution for Iran's deepest, hardest-to-bomb site, called Fordo. It would be converted from an enrichment plant to some kind of "research facility." That leaves the hardest problem: How many centrifuges would Iran be permitted to keep? Just as the Americans talk about reducing their number to just a few thousand, the Iranians propose expanding the numbers by tens of thousands. (There are 19,000 installed today, but only about half are running.) "There's no splitting the difference here," said Robert J. Einhorn, who was on the American negotiating team until last year. "If the Iranians keep taking the view that they must have the capacity to fuel power reactors, they are not going to even get in the ballpark of the numbers the U.S. is talking about." Even if all these issues are resolved, Mr. Obama would still have to sell any agreement to a suspicious Congress, Israel, and deeply worried Arab allies.