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How to Think About the New Middle East
(Politico) Dennis Ross - President Obama instructed Secretary of State Kerry "to push for an immediate cessation of hostilities based on a return to the November 2012 cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas." However, first, the 2012 agreement had done nothing to prevent Hamas from building up an elaborate network of tunnels to launch rockets and infiltrate Israel - and Israel is not about to live with tunnels that penetrate the country and constitute, in the words of one Israeli, "a loaded gun at our heads." Second, this is a different Egypt today, under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and it views Hamas as a threat rather than a potential ally. It has no interest in saving Hamas or allowing it to gain from the current conflict. Third, the Saudis, Emiratis and Jordanians see the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist group from which Hamas sprang, as just as threatening as Iran. These moderate Arab states want to see Hamas lose and not win. Kerry, to his credit, envisioned the cease-fire he was trying to arrange as one in which fighting would stop but Israel could finish destroying the tunnels. It has not worked yet, but if the U.S. works exclusively through the Egyptians, it may yet happen. The administration needs to approach the Middle East with the broader goal of how it can ensure that U.S. friends in the region are stronger and their adversaries (and ours) are weaker. Ultimately, President Obama and Secretary Kerry would be wise to approach the current conflict, and its end, with that objective in mind. The writer served as special assistant to President Barack Obama from 2009-11.