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Iran Poised to Choose Nuclear Power over Economic Prosperity
(Washington Post) Ray Takeyh - Since the exposure of its illicit nuclear program in 2002, Iran has wrestled with how to expand its nuclear infrastructure while sustaining a measure of economic growth. As the Nov. 24 deadline approaches, Iran has finally come to the crossroads, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many hard-line elements seem ready to forge ahead with their nuclear ambitions even if they collide with economic imperatives. In the impractical universe of conservatives, Iran can meet the basic needs of its people by developing local industries. Hard-liners believe that isolation from the international community can best preserve Iran's ideological identity. This siege mentality drives Iran's quest for nuclear arms and their deterrent power. Although many in the West may privately hope that the interim accord will simply roll on, Iranian adherence is hardly assured. The history of Iran's nuclear diplomacy suggests that it will abandon the agreement when it has sufficient technological capacity to carry out a rapid surge of its program. It already seems clear that Khamenei and the hard-liners are poised to choose nuclear power over economic prosperity. The writer is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.