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A Nuclear Deal with Iran Will Require the West to Reevaluate Its Presumptions
(Washington Post) Eric Edelman, Dennis Ross and Ray Takeyh - After a decade of patient negotiations with Iran over its contested nuclear program, the prospects of the United States and other world powers securing a final deal are not good. It is time to acknowledge that the policy of engagement has been predicated on a series of assumptions that, although logical, have proven largely incorrect. Two administrations - those of George W. Bush and Barack Obama - have relied on financial stress to temper Iran's nuclear ambitions. At its core, this policy has argued that steady economic pressure would change the calculus of the Islamic Republic, eventually leading it to concede the most disturbing aspects of its nuclear program. What was missed was that the Islamic Republic is a revolutionary state that rarely makes judicious economic decisions. In fact, the notion of integration into the global economy is frightening to Iran's highly ideological rulers, who require an external nemesis to justify their absolutist rule. Iran will not easily alter its approach. If there is any hope of changing the Iranian calculus, its leaders must see that the price - as they measure it - is high. Any coercive strategy still has to be predicated on further segregating Iran from global markets and financial institutions. But this cannot be the end of it. Iran must face pressure across many fronts. It is important for Tehran to see that there are no divisions for it to exploit between the White House and Congress. The president would be wise to consult with Congress on the parameters of an acceptable deal and to secure a resolution authorizing him to use force in the event that Iran violates its obligations or seeks a breakout capacity. Eric Edelman served as undersecretary of defense during the George W. Bush administration. Dennis Ross served as a special assistant to President Obama from 2009 to 2011. Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.