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Source: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR600/RR637/RAND_RR637.pdf
A Persistent Threat: The Evolution of Al-Qaeda and Other Salafi Jihadists
(RAND Corporation) Seth G. Jones - This report argues that the U.S. faces a serious and growing Salafi-jihadist challenge. Beginning in 2010, there was a rise in the number of Salafi-jihadist groups and fighters, particularly in Syria and North Africa. There was also an increase in the number of attacks perpetrated by al-Qaeda and its affiliates. The broader Salafi-jihadist movement has become more decentralized among four tiers: core al-Qaeda in Pakistan, led by Ayman al-Zawahiri; formal affiliates that have sworn allegiance to core al-Qaeda, located in Syria, Somalia, Yemen, and North Africa; a panoply of Salafi-jihadist groups that have not sworn allegiance to al-Qaeda but are committed to establishing an extremist Islamic emirate; and inspired individuals and networks. The threat posed by this diverse set of groups varies widely, though several pose a substantial threat to the U.S. homeland or U.S. interests overseas. The writer previously served as the representative for the commander, U.S. Special Operations Command, to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations.