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Source: http://www.armscontrol.org/ACT/2015_0102/Features/Looking-Beyond-the-Interim-Deal
Looking Beyond the Interim Deal
(Arms Control Association) Ariel E. Levite - The contours of an achievable deal with Iran now seem clear. The U.S. and its partners have gone very far to accommodate Iran's preferred terms regarding enrichment capability and gradual sanctions relief. Moreover, while the plutonium route to an Iranian nuclear weapon has been slowed down at a minimum, Iran's indigenous enrichment capabilities have not been meaningfully reduced and are unlikely to be reduced later. Tehran will likely be subjected to a far more intrusive verification regime following an agreement, but the chances are slim that it would accept the kind of airtight, open-ended arrangement allowing for wide-area monitoring and regular inspections of its military facilities that would dramatically reduce the risk of a clandestine rush to the bomb. The writer is a senior associate in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Prior to 2008, he held senior positions in Israel's Ministry of Defense, Atomic Energy Commission, and National Security Council.