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Israeli Intelligence Questions Washington's Claim on Iran Nuclear Breakout Time
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Robert Satloff - Achieving a year's warning about Iran's effort to break out is the centerpiece of the Obama administration's argument in defense of the emerging deal. Yet conversations with two long-time Israeli defense officials confirmed that Israeli intelligence disputes the claim that the proposed deal's collective elements will provide one year of warning. They not only questioned how U.S. analysts can know with certainty that warning time will remain intact in year five or year ten of an agreement, but also suggested that Israel believes warning time could be considerably less than claimed. Since Israel's security and intelligence establishment has not been viewed as a cheerleader for the prime minister's overall Iran policy, its analysis of the breakout issue will not be easily dismissed; instead, it is likely to be given substantial credence in U.S. policy and political circles. For the administration, a fight against Israeli intelligence poses a very different set of challenges than a fight against Israeli political leaders. The writer is executive director of The Washington Institute.