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The Iran Time Bomb
(Washington Post) Michael Hayden, Olli Heinonen and Ray Takeyh - A careful assessment reveals that a one-year breakout time may not be sufficient to detect and reverse Iranian violations. Once the U.S. had an indication that Iran was violating an agreement, it could be months before the director of national intelligence would be confident enough to present a case for action to the president. History suggests the Iranians would engage in protracted negotiations and much arcane questioning of the evidence. Then the U.S. would have to convince the other member states invested in the agreement - including veto-wielding Russia and China - that the accord was being violated and that forceful action was needed. Time would be spent quarrelling over divergent views. In the end, a year simply may not be enough time to build an international consensus on measures to redress Iranian violations. With stakes so high, we need a national debate about the nature and parameters of any agreement. The right venue for that debate is the halls of Congress. No agreement can be considered viable or enduring without such legislative approbation. Michael Hayden led the CIA from 2006 to 2009 and the NSA from 1999 to 2005. Olli Heinonen is a former deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.