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Source: http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/As-showdown-time-with-Iran-draws-near-what-are-the-real-choices-404295
As Showdown Time with Iran Draws Near, What Are the Real Choices?
(Jerusalem Post) Ephraim Asculai and Emily B. Landau - Knowledge of the military aspects of Iran's nuclear program is essential for assessing Iran's potential to produce nuclear explosive devices, and is therefore crucial for good and effective verification. The Iranian leadership - which continues to harbor military nuclear ambitions - is well aware of the importance of this issue, and has therefore been emphatic in its rejection of inspections of secret military facilities. Unfortunately, the P5+1 gave up the option of including ballistic missiles in the final deal, seemingly acquiescing to Iran's claim that these delivery systems are "non-nuclear." In the current dynamic, the pressure of sanctions began to be eased before the final agreement was reached, which has only weakened the hand of the P5+1. Rather than calling Iran's bluff at the table, secure in the knowledge that Iran would not leave because it seeks sanctions relief, the powers began offering concessions. For Iran this attempt at "fair play" by the U.S. only spelled weakness, and this was Iran's cue to harden its red lines and demands. As we move into the final stretch, there are two choices: either giving in further to Iran's demands, or not reaching a deal. But no matter what the nature of the remaining sticking points, the closer the P5+1 feels they are to a deal, the more committed they are to not pronouncing whatever they achieve to be a bad deal. Unfortunately, this will amount to a well-orchestrated face-saving farce. Iran will practically retain the option to invest in a clandestine operation to produce the necessary fissile material for the core of a nuclear explosive device, with the explosive part of this device already achieved in military facilities that will not be prone to inspection. Dr. Ephraim Asculai is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Dr. Emily B. Landau is director of the Arms Control and Regional Security program at INSS.