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Russian S-300 Missiles to Iran: A Game-Changer?
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Michael Eisenstadt and Brenda Shaffer - One of the early consequences of the nuclear agreement with Iran has been revived negotiations over the sale of Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles to the Islamic Republic. The S-300 would represent a significant upgrade in Iran's capabilities, though much would depend on the model sent, numbers involved, and the technical and tactical proficiency of the crews. It would provide Iran, for the first time, with the ability to intercept cruise missiles (such as the Tomahawk) and short- and medium-range ballistic missiles (such as the Israeli Jericho). Tehran might also decide to transfer some S-300s to Syria. At the same time, the U.S. and Israel are on good terms with several S-300 users (Greece, Slovakia, and Ukraine), so their intelligence services are probably familiar with its capabilities and vulnerabilities. Yet the presence of such a system would make any preventive strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure much more complicated, risky, and costly. The transfer of S-300s to Iran seems far from a foregone conclusion, and Russia's latest bid to resurrect negotiations over the missile system may simply be another attempt to use threatened arms transfers to achieve other goals. Although the deal may go through eventually, it seems unlikely to happen quickly. Michael Eisenstadt is director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute. Brenda Shaffer is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University.