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Betting on Reform in Iran
(Foreign Policy) Aaron David Miller and Jason Brodsky - Iran's desire to keep the nuclear weapons option alive as a threshold state is inextricably linked to how the regime sees itself: as a revolutionary, ideological Shiite Islamist cause with legitimate regional ambitions surrounded by hostile Sunni neighbors and a West - particularly an America - that wants it reformed or, worse, overthrown. Driven by a profound sense of insecurity and a deep sense of entitlement, if not grandiosity, Iran's desire for a putative nuclear weapon isn't some discretionary foreign-policy option. As long as the Islamic Republic behaves like a cause and not just a country, the danger that it will choose to weaponize will be ever present. Though President Hassan Rouhani may wax on about the possibilities of cooperation with the U.S. on non-nuclear fronts, in the end, it is the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who calls the shots. If we think the U.S.-Iranian diplomatic, economic, and political relationship is on a linear road to recovery, we better reconsider. We don't doubt the desire for change among the Iranian public or the country's reformers - the problem is that they're not running the country and may not be for a very long time.