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Source: http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/optimism-on-syria-is-misplaced-heres-why
Optimism on Syria Is Misplaced
(The National-Abu Dhabi) Hassan Hassan - The UN Security Council passed a unanimous decision on Friday calling for peace negotiations and a ceasefire to steer Syria towards a political settlement. But optimism seems to be misplaced because it is not based on any progress or attainable objectives in the foreseeable future. Even if another Alawite loyalist replaces Bashar Al-Assad, many close to regime circles doubt the new president would be obeyed by everyone. Already the regime has fragmented in many parts of the country into roving fighting factions led by a field commander, not so dissimilar to the rebel forces. Likewise, the survival of Assad at the helm of power in Damascus is a no-brainer for many within the opposition. Rebel forces who accept a compromise that keeps him in power risk the loss of support from their constituencies. Agreeing to a ceasefire should not be confused with accepting a political settlement led by Assad. The writer is an associate fellow at Chatham House.