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Source: http://jcpa.org/article/earthquakes-of-the-middle-east/
Earthquakes of the Middle East
(Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah - Extreme fundamentalism together with the brutal and outrageous reality of the civil wars raging in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and Lebanon have produced hundreds of thousands of victims, phantom cities, millions displaced and hundreds of thousands of refugees in foreign lands. Even with the successes following the Russian military intervention, the Assad regime controls barely 30-40% of the previous Syrian Republic and his regime is totally dependent on the decision-makers in Moscow and Teheran. The Kurds in Iraq are now considering a referendum on whether to declare an independent state. Although the Kurds say it is only meant to take the pulse of the people and not to be implemented immediately, Baghdad sees the specter of secession becoming a reality in its northern provinces. The Islamic State, under attack by the Russians and the Western military coalition led by the U.S., is feeling the crunch. Thousands of its fighters have been killed or incapacitated by the air raids. IS has enough energy to continue to fight in Syria and Iraq, but sooner or later the traditional forces will destroy it. Five years from now, we will likely be confronted with a new map of the Middle East with new entities born or re-born. The writer was formerly Foreign Policy Advisor to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence.