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Israel and the Post-American Middle East: Why the Status Quo Is Sustainable
(Foreign Affairs) Martin Kramer - Some say Israel's adherence to an "unsustainable" status quo in the West Bank has made it a liability in a region. But there is no near solution to the enduring conflict with the Palestinians. Israel maintains an over-the-horizon security footprint in most of the West Bank; Israeli-Palestinian security cooperation fills in most of the gaps. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is prosecuted mostly through maneuvering in international bodies and campaigns for and against BDS. These are high-decibel, low-impact confrontations. The notion that Israelis live in a perpetual state of paralyzing fear misleads both Israel's allies and its adversaries. Israel's leaders are cautious but confident, and practiced in the very long game that everyone plays in the Middle East. Israel's survival has always depended on its willingness to sustain the status quo that it has created, driving its adversaries to resignation - and compromise. Such resolve has served Israel well over time. Still, there is a looming cloud on Israel's horizon. The U.S., after a wildly erratic spree of misadventures, is backing out of the region. The leaders of the Zionist movement always sought to ally their project with the dominant power of the day, but they had lived through too much European history to think that great power is ever abiding. In the 20th century, the emerging U.S. superpower didn't rush to embrace the Jews. They were alone during the 1930s, when the gates of the U.S. were closed to them. They were alone during the Holocaust, when the U.S. awoke too late. They were alone in 1948, when the U.S. placed Israel under an arms embargo, and in 1967, when a U.S. president explicitly told the Israelis that if they went to war, they would be alone. The Obama administration has given Israelis a preview of just how the unshakable bond is likely to be shaken. The inevitable turn of the wheel was precisely the reason Zionist Jews sought sovereign independence in the first place. An independent Israel is a guarantee against the day when the Jews will again find themselves alone, and it is an operating premise of Israeli strategic thought that such a day will come. This conviction, far from paralyzing Israel, propels it to expand its options, diversify its relationships, and build its independent capabilities. Israel is planning to outlast the U.S. in the Middle East. Israelis roll their eyes when the U.S. insinuates that it best understands Israel's genuine long-term interests. It is time for the U.S. to abandon or at least modify the mantra that "the status quo is unsustainable." Only if Israel's adversaries conclude that Israel can sustain the status quo indefinitely is there any hope that they will reconcile themselves to Israel's existence as a Jewish state. The status quo may not be optimal, but it is sustainable, for as long as it takes. As the U.S. steps back from the Middle East, this is the message Washington should send if it wants to assist Israel in filling the vacuum it will leave behind. The writer is President of Shalem College in Jerusalem.