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One Year after the Iran Deal: Sinking Confidence in the U.S. Balancing Role
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) James F. Jeffrey - The reverberations of the Iran deal (JCPOA) continue to echo throughout a Middle East that is arguably less secure than it was last July, in part because of the agreement. The region perceives that its political effects have encouraged, even enabled, Iran's hegemonic quest, and there is enough truth in this view that the burden is on Washington to show it is not the case. It is the wind in Iran's sails conjured by the deal, rather than any JCPOA specifics, that so concern most regional states. The deal has given Iran the means to expand its regional heft through diplomacy, money, surrogates, and violence by allowing the regime to profit from the release of many tens of billions of dollars of previously blocked oil earnings and renewed oil exports, to leave the negotiating table flush with arguable "victories" (i.e., maintaining the right to enrich uranium and avoiding a confession about its weaponization program), and to become newly attractive as a global trading partner. The Obama administration has become so indebted to Iran for the agreement that it has avoided challenging Iran and, worse, seems to view the agreement as a transformative moment with Tehran. For Ankara, Jerusalem, and most Arab states, Iran appears on the march in multiple theaters, without major U.S. pushback. The writer served as U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor and as Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey.