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Iran Sees Modest Economic Progress after Nuclear Deal
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Patrick Clawson - Economic progress in Iran will be slow at best, given the collapse in international oil prices and the degree to which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other vested domestic interests are resisting the reforms needed to fully participate in the global economy. The Islamic Revolution's economic performance has long been mediocre, particularly when compared to its neighbors. At the time of the 1979 revolution, GDP in the United Arab Emirates was around one-third that of Iran but is now just as large. In 1978, Iran's per capita GDP was 30% larger than Turkey's; today it is 50% smaller. Iran's oil output is up, but revenues on 2.3 million barrels at $50 brings $115 million a day, less than the $130 million that came from exporting 1.3 million barrels at $100. Unusual sources of funding are being tapped: $1 billion is to come from selling citizens the right to avoid conscription. The writer is director of research at The Washington Institute.