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Palestinian Politics after Abbas: Institutional and Constitutional Challenges
(BICOM-UK) Lauren Mellinger - The Palestinian succession battle is already underway. PA President Mahmoud Abbas is unlikely to name a deputy in the near future. The constitutional mechanism for succession is likely to be set aside and the odds strongly favor Abbas' successor emerging from within Fatah party ranks, absent elections. Within Fatah, the absence of internal elections and failure to address the growing generational divide threatens the party's future as a leader of the Palestinian national movement. The likelihood that a drawn out succession crisis may destabilize the West Bank, possibly resulting in the collapse of the PA, is of growing concern to Israel, Egypt, and Jordan. The end of the Abbas era likely marks the end of the rule of the traditional, "Tunis-based" political leadership. Those who subsequently assume leadership of the PA and of the PLO will be forced to contend with a constituency that has grown disillusioned with the promises of the Oslo process, and many of the contenders espouse policies at odds with those calling for the sides to reach a negotiated final-status agreement establishing two states. The writer, a research fellow at BICOM, is pursuing a PhD in War Studies at King's College London.