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Changed Predictions for PA Elections: Fatah to Remain Strong in West Bank, May Challenge Hamas in Gaza
(Times of Israel) Avi Issacharoff - In the upcoming Palestinian local elections on Oct. 8, the Fatah movement has maintained a surprising degree of unity. Even the close associates of Mohammad Dahlan - considered Mahmoud Abbas' main rival - have refrained from running on competing lists and are cooperating with Fatah. A high-ranking Fatah official explained, "The total number of seats for the local councils, municipalities, villages - altogether in the West Bank and in Gaza - that will be elected on October 8 is 3,818. Of that number, there are 313 seats in Gaza and 3,505 in the West Bank. Even before the election campaign began, Fatah was assured of 1,335 seats." In 181 local councils out of the 391 in the West Bank, the residents decided on just one list that will run in the elections. In the city of Jenin, Hamas is not participating in the elections. In Ramallah, there is a Fatah list and a left-wing list, but no Hamas list. In Jericho, two Fatah lists are running against one another, without Hamas. In Bethlehem, Beit Jala, and Beit Sahour there is no Hamas list. Hamas has lists in Hebron, Tulkarm, and Kalkilya, while current Nablus mayor Adly Yaish will serve in rotation with a member of Fatah. Unlike the anti-Fatah "tsunami" in the 2005 local elections, it is becoming clearer that Hamas is not set for any dramatic victory in the West Bank. In Gaza, Fatah appears to be mounting a close challenge. Unlike in the West Bank, Gazans will be able to choose between two lists explicitly identified with either Fatah or Hamas. Fatah may well be the better organized faction, at least in the large cities.