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Chemical Weapons in Syria, Iraq and Beyond
(Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University) Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham - The partial dismantling of the Syrian chemical weapons (CW) arsenal has had little effect on the regularity with which such weapons have been deployed in Syria and Iraq. They have been used by the Assad regime, the rebels, and Islamic State (IS) alike. Weaponized industrial toxic chemicals, mainly chlorine, became a routine weapon for all warring factions. Islamic State is very much inclined to pursue an act of "mega-sabotage," meaning a high-impact operation involving CW or another weapon of mass destruction, either in the Middle East, Europe, or the U.S. Its weakened condition suggests that it is unlikely to pull off such an attack, but its motivation to attempt one is undoubtedly growing. Islamic State converted a pharmaceutical factory near Mosul, Iraq, into a production center for the manufacture of mustard gas. All the precursors were at hand, as were the necessary experts. However, in February 2016, U.S. special forces captured the purported head of IS' CW program, Sleiman Daoud al-Afari. In September, the U.S. bombarded the CW production facility. However, it is estimated that IS had evacuated most of its CW-related equipment and experts to Syria. According to an independent analysis by the IHS Conflict Monitor in London, as of November 2016, IS had used CW at least 52 times across Syria and Iraq since 2014. The wide distribution of these attacks indicates appreciable CW deployability and conveyability. The writer, a former senior intelligence analyst in the IDF and an expert on chemical and biological warfare, is a senior research associate at the BESA Center.