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Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117099507103203414.htm
The Limits of Diplomacy in the Middle East
[Wall Street Journal, 9Feb07] Morton Abramowitz and Leslie H. Gelb - There is plenty of enthusiasm for a diplomatic surge to solve Iraq. The Iraq Study Group, much of Congress, think-tankers and media pundits urge diplomacy as the way out. "Give diplomacy a chance," they say. "Talk to everybody, especially the bad guys, and we'll find common ground." Diplomacy cannot resolve Iraq's internal conflicts, though it may help lubricate a deal reached by Iraqis. Region-wide diplomacy can help over the long term, if based on a sound policy to re-establish American power in the Mideast, Gulf and worldwide. But diplomacy by itself rarely changes the facts on the ground, and right now, the facts appear to be a nonfunctioning central government, half the country sunk in civil/sectarian war, and Sunnis leaving Iraq in droves. Nor do the neighbors have the power to compel a settlement. As for Arab-Israeli talks helping to settle Iraq - that's an illusion. Iraqi leaders don't care much about the Palestinians. They see them as past supporters of Saddam Hussein. Iran is a politically divided and economically poor country; it is not a regional superpower. Most Iranians don't like their present political leaders and are open to the U.S. connection. Without giving up, or giving in on key security concerns, Washington can let the great majority of Iranians in and out of government see the benefits of better relations with the U.S., and allow that thought to settle in. As for Syria, it causes a lot of trouble in the region, but its leaders, with their own internal problems, also have demonstrated they can act on national self-interest. Jumping into diplomacy without a careful weighing of underlying policy and power could strengthen the bargaining hands of the tyrannical regimes, confuse and unsettle friends, and put all the pressure for making concessions on the U.S. Mr. Abramowitz is a senior fellow of the Century Foundation. Mr. Gelb is president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.