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Experts Concerned about North Korean Nuclear Precedent for Iran
(JNS.org) Ariel Ben Solomon - "The aspect of the North Korean case that needs to be taken into account with regard to Iran is the fact that despite all the differences between the two states, they share a determination to acquire nuclear weapons in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) commitment they took upon themselves to remain non-nuclear," said Emily Landau, director of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies. "In 1994, there were celebrations of the deal with North Korea that were viewed as ending the nuclear crisis, but it continued to move forward." The Obama administration had celebrated the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran with even greater fanfare, but "there is no indication of an Iranian strategic U-turn in the nuclear realm, and the deal itself is severely flawed." "If a short-term delay causes the international community to be lulled into a false sense that the deal 'is working,' as we are hearing lately from deal supporters, it is likely to wake up with a nuclear Iran that will be as firmly entrenched as North Korea." Michael Rubin, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official, said the current dilemmas with Iran and North Korea relate to how both nuclear deals were negotiated. "American diplomats in both cases were so afraid talks would fail that they would agree to a bad deal, and ignore backsliding and cheating just to keep hope alive....Those negotiating with Iran fooled themselves into thinking reformists mattered." Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Shay, director of research for the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Israel's IDC Herzliya college, said Middle Eastern states such as Iran are watching how America deals with North Korea. Failure to thwart North Korea "may be a prelude to a more challenging threat from Tehran.... The campaign against North Korea may define the American position against Iran."