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Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/09/AR2008100902330.html
The President Who Will Deal with Iran
[Washington Post] Michael Gerson - Economic downturns are wrenching but cyclical. Nuclear proliferation is more difficult to reverse, creating the permanent prospect of massive miscalculation and tragedy. America's next leader may be known to history as the president who had to deal with Iran. Former chief UN weapons inspector David Kay says the Iranian regime is about 80% of the way toward its nuclear goals - perhaps two to four years from "effective, deployable weapons." Kay believes that by simply saying a nuclear Iran is unacceptable, America is set up for a choice between "suicide" (a disastrous military attack on Iran) and "humiliation" (a galling acceptance of the unacceptable). Instead, Kay calls for a new round of "skillful diplomacy" to persuade Iran to stop at what he calls "virtual capability" - a global recognition that it could produce nuclear weapons in short order, without all the drawbacks caused by actually producing those weapons. Kay seems resigned to a policy of containment - holding Iran directly responsible if it transfers nuclear weapons to terrorists, providing nuclear guarantees to our friends in the region so they don't feel pressured to develop their own. The problem with this approach? Iran may be a different proliferation threat from any we have faced before. The regime cultivates ties to violent nonstate proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories. Iran's religious radicalism introduces an unpredictable element of irrationality. The writer, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, served as a policy adviser and chief speechwriter to President George W. Bush from 2000 to 2006.