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Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/09/opinion/edstern.php
U.S. Can Beat Iran - But Not by Fighting
[International Herald Tribune] Roger Stern - In a war game in 2002, Lt.-Gen. Paul Van Riper of the Marines was called from retirement to lead a surrogate Iranian force defending against a U.S. attack. The general was recruited for his special talent, devising creative ways to fight stronger, technologically superior opponents. Using motorbike messengers to keep his communications secure from high-tech eavesdropping, he launched a surprise attack on the U.S. Navy from a fleet of small, fast missile boats. The barrage was intended to saturate U.S. anti-missile radars, allowing at least a few missiles to reach their targets. This worked perfectly. A U.S. aircraft carrier and 15 other warships went to the bottom. Iranian naval doctrine is to strike hard, once, before being destroyed. To deliver this strike, Iran's Revolutionary Guards began building a fleet like Van Riper's long before the general showed what damage it could do. Anti-ship missiles have been sinking real warships in combat since 1982, when an Argentine fighter pilot fired just two at HMS Sheffield. Deeply unpopular, the Iranian regime now relies on constantly rising oil prices for survival. An oil price decline would be a mortal threat. If Bush wants to hit the regime where it hurts, conciliation should become his byword. In the price collapse that would follow, he'd find a brand new Iranian appetite for negotiation. This is because, unlike sanctions that might take years to bite, a peace initiative would threaten the mullahs tomorrow. The writer Roger Stern is a national security and energy policy analyst in the Oil, Energy and the Middle East Program at Princeton University.