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Where Next for the Iran Nuclear Deal? A View from Israel
(BICOM) Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Michael Herzog - While the JCPOA nuclear agreement covered only the nuclear program, the legitimacy and funding it provided Iran have emboldened Tehran to carry out more malign activities in the region in a bid to position itself as the dominant actor in the heart of the Middle East, on the ruins of the Arab Spring and ISIS. Once Iran resumes its nuclear program, both the U.S. and Israel will have to redefine their red lines. If Iran reaches a critical breakout point, a military response is a possibility. Israel's defense establishment has been working under the assumption that, despite the major faults of the deal, it bought Israel time. That timeframe is probably going to be shortened and the dilemma of whether to use military means in order to stop Iran from approaching the threshold might face Jerusalem once again. Everyone, including the Iranians, are watching the unfolding diplomatic process between the U.S. and North Korea. If there is a real agreement on the denuclearization of North Korea, including credible inspections inside the country, then this will strengthen the U.S. hand vis-a-vis Iran. The writer, a fellow of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, is a former chief of staff to four Israeli ministers of defense.