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Source: https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/irans-dilemma/
Iran's Dilemma
(Israel Hayom) Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser - The U.S. has amplified its economic sanctions against Iran in recent days. The U.S. has also begun moving forces to the Persian Gulf and closer to Iran. The Europeans have stressed that despite their commitment to the nuclear deal, if Iran stops fulfilling its obligations they will have to renew sanctions. Western nuclear experts are still publishing analyses of Iran's nuclear archives. These reports highlight the progress Iran's military nuclear program has made, and illustrate the degree to which the International Atomic Energy Agency was irresponsible in regard to the nuclear deal. For Iran, saving the nuclear deal gives it the ability to manufacture unhindered a large nuclear arsenal within 11 years. Still, it's reasonable to assume that Tehran, at this stage, will seek to avoid a direct military clash with the U.S. by recognizing the limits of its own might and vulnerability in the face of American military capabilities. The writer was head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate's Research Division and is now a senior scholar at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.