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The Rise and Fall of the Islamic State
(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)Yoram Schweitzer - Despite the fact that its attempt to establish an Islamic state was halted, the Islamic State and its affiliates, together with al-Qaeda and its allies - who share their ideology - will continue to threaten to spread terrorism and guerrilla warfare throughout the world. The Islamic State's failure to realize the vision it offered its believers was due to its underestimation of the balance of power between its forces and those arrayed against it. Thousands of Islamic State combatants remain in Syria and Iraq, hiding and operating in various regions. Islamic State operatives continue to carry out terrorist and guerrilla attacks around the world. Islamic State has manpower reserves among its fighters imprisoned by the Kurds and Iraqis. It is also difficult to find the ISIS fighters implanted in refugee camps, who act like innocent civilians. The Salafi jihadist camp is guided by a different concept of time than what is common in the Western world: strategic restraint and patience underlie the struggle, and therefore the fall of the Islamic State is not perceived as defeat. The writer heads the Program on Terrorism and Low-Intensity Conflict at INSS.