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Source: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyNote66-Herzog-WEB.pdf
Iran across the Border: Israel's Pushback in Syria
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Michael Herzog - Iran has embarked on a long-term strategic project to establish itself as the dominant power in the Middle East. Granted legitimacy and room to act by the 2015 nuclear deal, and emboldened by its success in helping turn the tide of war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, Iran has since labored relentlessly to create a contiguous zone of direct influence and power projection toward the Mediterranean. These Iranian efforts have been based primarily on an active on-the-ground presence, influence over weakened and dependent governments in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, military infrastructure and sizable "legions" of armed sectarian proxies serving as its muscle in regional wars, and initiatives to expand its economic leverage and extract economic benefits. An important part of the Iranian strategy has been upgrading Hizbullah's capabilities by implementing an ambitious "precision project" designed to convert significant numbers of rockets into high-precision ones equipped with guidance systems. In the assessment of Israeli intelligence, the goal is to provide Hizbullah with an arsenal of at least 1,000 medium- and longer-range precise rockets with an error probability of up to ten meters. Since mid-2017, on three occasions, Iran has itself demonstrated its capabilities in this field by firing salvos of accurate rockets over several hundred kilometers at specific Islamic State and Iranian-Kurdish targets in Syria and Iraq. While some of the missiles landed far afield, others hit their targets with relatively high accuracy. In addition, Iran has provided long-range accurate attack drone capabilities to Hizbullah. Israeli officials believe strongly that Israel's assertive military campaign played the major role in thwarting Iranian plans to turn Syria into a strong anti-Israel military front. The campaign, moreover, is believed to have effectively rolled back much of Iran's deployment in the Syrian theater. Yet Iran has by no means given up on its ambitions or decided to withdraw militarily from Syria, and it still commands considerable forces and capabilities in the country. The writer, a fellow of the Washington Institute, served as head of the IDF Strategic Planning Division and as senior military advisor and chief of staff to four Israeli ministers of defense.