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Source: https://www.dw.com/en/iran-faces-catastrophic-death-toll-from-coronavirus/a-52811895
Iran Faces Catastrophic Death Toll from Coronavirus
(Deutsche Welle-Germany) Shabnam von Hein - Researchers at Sharif University of Technology in Tehran have created a computer simulation of future scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 across Iran. They concluded that in a best-case scenario - in which the government quarantines all high-risk areas, people strictly obey quarantine rules, and access to sufficient medical supplies is guaranteed - the country would reach the peak of the epidemic in one week and the death toll would exceed 12,000. Yet that scenario is unrealistic: The government can't impose a quarantine, people will not obey quarantine rules, and the medical supply situation is catastrophic. Accounting for those realities, the researchers estimate Iran will not reach the peak of the epidemic until late May, and as many as 3.5 million people could die. While as of Tuesday evening, official statistics in Iran counted 988 deaths, the World Health Organization said it believes the actual numbers could be five times higher.