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Iran's Gamble of Military Provocations for Concessions Is Not Working
(Al Arabiya) Michael Pregent - Iran's recent military provocations against the U.S. and its Western allies in the Gulf are straight out of Tehran's old strategic playbook: provocations for concessions, and military adventurism designed to prop up the regime's image at home while deliberately stopping short of an escalation that would lead to a devastating response from the U.S. and its allies. The regime wants to look strong in confronting the U.S., while at the same time making sure that it is not presenting a serious military threat that would require an allied response. An inspection of the maritime harassments show that the Iranian gunboats have men in bright orange vests manning weapons that are clearly in the safe position - with their muzzles up and no ammunition feed into the heavy machine guns. Iran was hoping its provocations might cause enough nuisance that Western powers would grant sanctions relief on the grounds of the coronavirus pandemic. But instead, Trump is calling the regime's bluff. Sanctions relief is not coming, and a military response is more likely if Iran does not head Trump's warnings. The writer is a former intelligence officer in Iraq and a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.