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Improving the Potential for a Diplomatic Resolution to the Iran Nuclear Challenge
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Howard Berman, Michele Flournoy, Jane Harman, Leon Panetta, David Petraeus, Dennis Ross, and Robert Satloff - The Vienna negotiations are in danger of becoming a cover for Iran to move toward achieving a threshold nuclear weapons capability. Iran's behavior continues to indicate that it not only wants to preserve a nuclear weapons option but is actively moving toward developing that capability. Without convincing Iran it will suffer severe consequences if it stays on its current path, there is little reason to hope for the success of diplomacy. And given the speed with which Iran is moving forward with its nuclear program, such consequences cannot be limited to political isolation, condemnatory resolutions in international fora and additional economic sanctions. Therefore, for the sake of our diplomatic effort to resolve this crisis, we believe it is vital to restore Iran's fear that its current nuclear path will trigger the use of force against it by the U.S. We believe it is important for the Biden administration to take steps that lead Iran to believe that persisting in its current behavior and rejecting a reasonable diplomatic resolution will put to risk its entire nuclear infrastructure. Such steps may include orchestrating high-profile military exercises by the U.S. Central Command, potentially in concert with allies and partners, that simulate air-to-ground attacks on hardened targets and the suppression of Iranian missile batteries. Fulfilling past U.S. promises to act forcefully against other Iranian outrages, such as the drone attack by Iran-backed militias against the U.S. base at al-Tanf in Syria and Iran's illegal capture of merchant ships, might have the salutary impact of underscoring the seriousness of U.S. commitments to act on the nuclear issue.