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Source: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,536914,00.html
Iran Could Have Enough Uranium for a Bomb by Year's End
[Der Spiegel-Germany] Markus Becker - New simulations carried out by European Union experts come to an alarming conclusion: Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium to build an atomic bomb by the end of this year. When the U.S. released a new National Intelligence Estimate last year, it seemed as though the danger of a mullah-bomb had passed. The report claimed that Tehran mothballed its nuclear weapons program in autumn 2003. As part of a project to improve control of nuclear materials, the European Commission Joint Research Center (JRC) in Ispra, Italy, set up a detailed simulation of the centrifuges currently used by Iran in the Natanz nuclear facility to enrich uranium. The results look nothing like those reached by the U.S. intelligence community. For one scenario, the JRC scientists assumed the centrifuges in Natanz were operating at 100% efficiency. Were that the case, Iran could already have the 25 kilograms of highly enriched uranium necessary for an atomic device by the end of this year. Another scenario assumed a much lower efficiency - just 25%. But even then, Iran would have produced enough uranium by the end of 2010.