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The Brewing Lebanon Deal
(Institute for a Secure America) Dr. David Wurmser - A U.S. plan is emerging to diffuse tension along Israel's northern border. Under the proposed plan, Hizbullah is to withdraw its forces northward, Israel concedes all the disputed areas along the border, and the area between Israel and Hizbullah will be filled by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). The UN established a mechanism to demarcate the border between Israel and Lebanon and such a demarcation was completed. Thus, there is no real disputed territory. They are disputed only because Hizbullah raised spurious claims. Yet, under the plan, Hizbullah is rewarded - and its resistance validated and continued existence as an armed militia legitimized - by a full Israeli withdrawal in all of the areas (Kfar Shouba, Sheba Farms and Ghajar) in addition to other disputed parcels. Under the plan, the LAF would secure the border and a buffer zone south of the Litani River. But the LAF has long been proven to be an entirely dysfunctional fiction as a sovereign force. It cannot in any way cross Hizbullah, and to believe it can, going forward, is simply delusional. It has functioned until now only as a cover and human shield for Hizbullah, despite the vast sums of money, equipment and training that have been given to the LAF by the U.S. However, Hizbullah likely will not accept the plan since it would be a humiliation for Hizbullah if it withdrew voluntarily under an Israeli threat. The writer is an American foreign policy specialist.