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Changes in Hamas Perceptions of the Gaza War
(BESA Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University) Lt.-Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Bartal - The Hamas invasion of Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, was quickly characterized by Hamas as fulfillment of a prophecy about the destruction of Israel. The battles of Oct. 7 were labeled a divine victory by believers over the enemies of Allah. However, more recent articles published on the Hamas website suggest a shift to admitting that Hamas has been defeated in battle again and again. Hamas predicted that Israel would not enter Gaza on the ground and that the war would end swiftly, as the inevitable heavy international pressure on Israel would force it to stop fighting. Hamas also expected Israel to negotiate a wholesale release of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the hundreds of Israeli hostages due to Israel's high sensitivity to human life. Instead, the death toll in Gaza is rising, most Hamas battalions have been disbanded and stripped of their military and organizational capabilities, and Gaza, which until recently was considered a land liberated by jihad, is being recaptured. Hamas understands and has reconciled itself to the fact that it has been defeated militarily and that the citadel of resistance in Gaza has fallen. Hamas is aware that the Oct. 7 war is seen by some of the Palestinian public as a dangerous gamble that harmed the Palestinian cause. The writer is a senior researcher at the BESA Center.