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Source: https://www.aei.org/op-eds/biden-faces-a-hard-choice-to-avert-israels-next-war/
How the U.S. Could Defuse a War in Lebanon
(Bloomberg-American Enterprise Institute) Hal Brands - Israel faces a grave decision in the coming weeks whether to pivot from one war, against Hamas, to another, against Hizbullah. The best way for President Joe Biden to head off a devastating Israeli war with Hizbullah in Lebanon is to demonstrate that he will back Israel to the hilt. Since Oct. 7, the escalating back-and-forth between Israel and Hizbullah has claimed hundreds of lives and depopulated swaths of northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Israel has inflicted perhaps 10 fatalities for each one it has suffered. Tens of thousands of Israelis are still scattered from their homes; the country's inhabitable territory has, in effect, contracted. Israeli tolerance for that predicament is waning. Many Israelis believe, rightly, that Hizbullah seeks their destruction, and - after the horrors of Oct. 7 - are unwilling to live indefinitely with the threat it poses. But there may be an opening for de-escalation. Hizbullah knows that all-out conflict with Israel would be its ruin. Hizbullah is more likely to pull back, and Iran is more likely to counsel retrenchment, if they are convinced that America will aid Israel resolutely. Biden must make clear that he will give Israel the time and resources it needs to decimate Hizbullah - that there will be no early calls for a ceasefire, and that American bombs and bullets will flow. He should make clear, moreover, that Washington will inflict crushing punishment on Iran if Iran enters the conflict. Unfortunately, the administration's body language signals something different. The writer is a senior fellow at AEI.