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Tehran and Its Allies Aren't Ready for a Full-Scale Conflict with Israel and the U.S.
(Wall Street Journal) Sune Engel Rasmussen - Iran can't afford a war with Israel, which would likely pull in the U.S. For decades Tehran has preferred to harry its rivals in the region through a network of foreign militias. Tehran-backed Hizbullah also has more to lose from escalating its 10-month cross-border battle with Israel into a full-scale war. While Hizbullah has a missile arsenal that could punish Israel severely, its leaders have watched Israel demolish much of Gaza since the Oct. 7 attacks and pick off its leadership - something Israel has vowed to replicate in Lebanon if provoked. Both Iran and Hizbullah are penetrated by Israeli intelligence. Israel has signaled its readiness to reply quickly to any strike and even pre-empt one if necessary. Israel might use any Iranian-orchestrated attack as an excuse to strike back even harder. The last time Hizbullah fought a war with Israel was in 2006. Sami Nader, director of the Institute of Political Science at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, said, "The situation is totally different from the one in 2006. Lebanon has gone through economic collapse, people lost their savings in the banks, the currency lost 98% of its value, unemployment is high. Hizbullah's constituency in the south lost their houses once. They don't want to do it a second time. The timing is not right for a war with Israel."