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The Israeli Intelligence Community Hit a Grand Slam
(Atlantic Council) Marc Polymeropoulos - In August, the Israeli intelligence community hit a grand slam by obtaining exquisite intelligence that was highly predictive in nature and likely staved off a wider war. According to media reports, the Israelis collected information that not only indicated that Hizbullah was about to launch a significant attack against northern and central Israel, but also the precise time - 5:15 a.m. local time on August 25 - when the launches would occur and the specific units that would conduct the attacks. This noteworthy feat, presumably gleaned from a combination of Israeli signals intelligence; imagery of movement within the rocket, missile, or drone units themselves; and human sources, who could have told the Israelis the precise plans and intentions of the Hizbullah leadership. Israel has shown an ability to penetrate Hizbullah, with the July killing in Beirut of Fuad Shukr, a close confidant and military adviser to Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah. This intelligence collection then allowed the Israel Defense Forces to effectively preempt the Hizbullah attack, destroying up to 2/3 of the rockets and missiles that would have been launched. It seems quite clear that Israeli pilots knew the precise location of the Hizbullah rocket and missile units. This intelligence saved the lives of those Israelis who might have been hit by several hundred rockets and missiles. Moreover, this Israeli intelligence coup almost certainly avoided a wider war since it was, in fact, de-escalatory in nature. Since there was no mass casualty event in Israel from the Hizbullah attack, a massive Israeli response was avoided. The writer, a 26-year veteran of the CIA, is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.