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Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/25/world/middleeast/iran-israel-hezbollah.html
Iran's Khamenei Wants to Avoid a Larger Regional War
(New York Times) Steven Erlanger - After a series of humiliations, heightened by Israel's intensified attacks on Hizbullah, Iran faces clear dilemmas. It wants to restore deterrence against Israel while avoiding a full-scale war that could draw in the U.S. and, in combination, destroy the Islamic Republic at home. It wants to preserve the proxies that provide what it calls forward defense against Israel - Hizbullah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen - without going into battle on their behalf. And it wants to get some of the punishing economic sanctions against it lifted by renewing nuclear negotiations with the West, while preserving its close military and trade relationships with Russia and China. Israel has seized an opportunity to destroy or diminish two Iranian proxies: Hamas and Hizbullah. Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, said Hizbullah is "disinclined to engage in a conflict that is likely to lead to its own destruction....Its capabilities and proximity to Israel are the first line of defense for the Islamic Republic, and if it is destroyed, it leaves the Iranians significantly more vulnerable."