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Hizbullah Misjudged Israel's Weakness and Iran's Might
(Wall Street Journal) Yaroslav Trofimov - Today, Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah is dead, as is much of Hizbullah's senior leadership. Nasrallah made two strategic mistakes: grossly underestimating Israel and overestimating the abilities of his patron, Iran. Hizbullah possesses a vast arsenal of missiles and rockets, but its weapons haven't inflicted any significant damage on Israel so far. "While Hizbullah is acting like an army, they are no match for Israel in terms of firepower, in terms of air power, in terms of intelligence and in terms of technology," said Fouad Siniora, who served as Lebanon's prime minister when Hizbullah and Israel fought a war in 2006. Iran has relied on Hizbullah's missiles and rockets as a deterrent against any potential Israeli attack on its own nuclear program. "It's very much part of Iran's own defensive doctrine and its main tool of deterrence against Israel," said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the consulting firm Le Beck International. "Hizbullah was built to defend Iran." Inside Lebanon, Hizbullah has lost the aura of invincibility. Hizbullah is also risking its standing within Lebanon's Shiite community, especially as residents of mostly Shiite areas in the south and the Bekaa Valley are fleeing their homes because of Israeli airstrikes. "Hizbullah's war has backfired, large parts of the South are destroyed, and hundreds of thousands of Shiites are on the road or basically refugees in their own country," said political analyst Michael Young.