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Source: https://www.memri.org/reports/never-again-how-prevent-next-october-7#
Never Again? How to Prevent the Next Oct. 7
(MEMRI) Col. (ret.) Yigal Carmon - Flawed assumptions led to the disaster on Oct. 7. The first was that Hamas was deterred by the blows struck against it by Israel in previous rounds of fighting. The IDF did indeed severely damage Hamas's combat capabilities in previous rounds of fighting, but this had no long-term impact on them - and certainly not on their intentions. After every round of fighting there was rebuilding, and each time, Hamas ended up better off than it was before. The second was that Hamas boasting should not be taken seriously and was strictly for internal consumption. The prevailing view was that because Israel allowed Hamas to build itself into an independent political body, Hamas would not want to jeopardize this status by attacking Israel, and that it was now focusing on building and governing. The third was that Gaza was experiencing a severe humanitarian crisis. This assumption is an absolute lie, as anyone who visited Gaza prior to Oct. 7 - including foreign journalists and aid workers - has seen. The violent 2018 "March of Return" events, the rioting at the border fence, and the rounds of Gaza-Israel fighting were all explained away by the Gazans' need to improve their harsh economic situation - not by any ideological intent or practical, organized plan to attack Israel. The fourth was that a high standard of living in Gaza created with aid funds would moderate, and even supersede, the Hamas ideology that is based on eliminating Israel and annihilating the Jews. Underpinning this idea is the postmodernist Western political doctrine that all ideologies are legitimate and equal, and that what these ideologies say to the outside world must not be taken too seriously because ideological consciousness can be shaped by monetary incentives. The writer, former counter-terrorism advisor to two Israeli prime ministers, is founder and president of the Middle East Media Research Institute.