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Lebanon's New President Won't Disarm Hizbullah
(Ha'aretz) David Daoud - Former Lebanese Armed Forces commander Joseph Aoun has been elected as Lebanon's president after two years of deadlock. Aoun's promise in his inaugural speech to usher in a "new era" where "the state would monopolize carrying arms" has been interpreted as a promise to disarm Hizbullah. But Aoun's words remain just that, and optimism over his promises remains premature. Lebanon's 1989 Taif Agreement redistributed the country's political powers. The Agreement stripped the Lebanese Presidency, an office earmarked by custom for a Maronite Christian, of many of its authorities. The Taif system granted the authority to disarm Hizbullah exclusively to the Cabinet, which controls the armed forces. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is likely to head the Cabinet, said on Dec. 5 that Hizbullah's arms will be addressed only through "national consensus" and dialogue. Hizbullah is expected to join the Cabinet. Moreover, Hizbullah remains highly popular among Lebanese Shiites, Lebanon's largest and fastest growing sect. Polls in January and September 2024 found upwards of 85% of Lebanese Shiites support the group. Given this support, the Cabinet is unlikely to take any measure against the group without unanimous consent.