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Iranian Subversion in Jordan and the West Bank Post-October 7, 2023
(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Oded Ailam - While Iran has suffered significant blows in the past year with Hizbullah, in Syria and Gaza, and in Iran itself with targeted Israeli attacks on air defense systems and military assets, Tehran has not abandoned its long-term vision of jihadist expansion. The regime does not view these setbacks as a turning point but as temporary tactical challenges that must be navigated before resuming their broader objectives. Iran remains committed to its ideological war against Israel and the West. Iran's strategic doctrine has long emphasized patience in achieving its objectives. Wherever Iran detects societal fissures, political fragility, or governance failures, it moves in to cultivate influence from the ground up, establishing deeply embedded networks that subvert sovereign authority and advance its long-term regional ambitions. Iran is exploiting regional vulnerabilities to destabilize Jordan's pro-Western monarchy and establish a contiguous anti-Israel network. In the wake of the October 7 attacks, Iran has intensified its use of Iraqi militias to infiltrate Jordan, often under the guise of religious pilgrimages or commercial activity. Iranian-backed operatives have established logistical hubs in Jordanian cities. Tehran is also bolstering Palestinian factions, including small extremist groups in Jordan and Judea and Samaria, with weapons, financial support, and tactical training. Iran is reactivating dormant Islamist groups within Jordan, particularly factions of the Muslim Brotherhood, to weaken the government's authority. Intelligence suggests that Iranian-backed operatives have contemplated operations against Jordanian leadership, including potential threats to King Abdullah II. Jordanian security forces have intercepted numerous Iranian-backed weapons shipments destined for Judea and Samaria. The writer, a former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center.