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How the U.S. Hindered the Hostage Release Negotiations with Hamas
(Real Clear Defense) Eyal Tsir Cohen and Jesse R. Weinberg - In an interview with the New York Times, former Secretary of State Antony Blinken placed the blame squarely on Hamas for delaying the hostage release negotiations. While this is true, Blinken's assessment overlooks a critical failure of U.S. strategy: at several pivotal moments, American mediators - through their public rhetoric and diplomatic approach - inadvertently strengthened Hamas's position and hindered a speedier resolution to the hostage crisis. Hamas sought to minimize Israeli military incursions into Gaza by leveraging global calls for de-escalation. The Biden administration's strategy unknowingly aligned with Hamas's goals. On Feb. 8, 2024, President Biden publicly criticized Israel's offensive as "over the top." White House officials also repeatedly warned Israel to halt its planned military operation in Rafah, saying that such an escalation would be unacceptable. For Hamas, these statements confirmed that time was on its side. Rather than make concessions, Hamas interpreted U.S. pressure on Israel as a sign that it could hold firm, delay negotiations, and wait for Washington to force Israeli withdrawals. A Hamas official reportedly told an Arab media outlet at the time: "If the Americans push Israel hard enough, we won't need to concede anything." Threats from Washington to withhold military aid reinforced Hamas's belief that Israel would ultimately be forced to back down. The turning point in hostage negotiations was not diplomatic pressure but military action. Only after suffering significant territorial and operational losses did Hamas shift its position, paving the way for an eventual deal. The lesson from this episode is that any diplomatic effort that pressures Israel without demanding immediate concessions from Hamas will only prolong crises - not resolve them. A surge in Israel's offensive in the spring of 2024 could have brought Hamas to a breaking point and led to a breakthrough in the negotiations. Instead, in direct contravention to Israel's combat doctrine which calls for a quick and offensive approach, Israel was forced to pull back as American pressure and diplomatic considerations limited Israel's room to maneuver. The Biden administration failed to recognize how its approach shaped Hamas's strategy. Effective negotiations with terror organizations are not built on goodwill. They require the consistent application of leverage - primarily through sustained military pressure and credible threats of escalation. Without such pressure, diplomacy risks becoming an empty gesture, allowing adversaries like Hamas to dictate the terms. Eyal Tsir Cohen, a senior researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), served as chief negotiator in hostage release negotiations until August 2024. Jesse R. Weinberg is a research fellow at INSS.