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Source: http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/view.php?StoryID=20060809-020028-6689r
Flawed Lebanon Consensus
[UPI] Martin Walker - There is growing consensus in Europe and the Middle East that the indecisive carnage in Lebanon has resulted in a strategic weakening of Israel and also by extension of its American ally, and a dramatic strengthening of the position of Hizballah and its patrons in Syria and Iran. Through Hizballah's defiance, the regimes of Tehran and Damascus find a new legitimacy in Arab eyes. Still, this consensus may be premature, for four main reasons. First, the tensions between Sunnis and Shiites have divided the Islamic world for 1,300 years. They are not going to disappear overnight. Second, no foreseeable U.S. administration is going to abandon Israel, and no foreseeable array of European governments is going to accept any outcome that questions or undermines Israel's right to exist. Third, Israel's military may have been bruised in Lebanon, but Israel's military remains the most formidable force in the Middle East, and it has massive resources in hand. The Israeli army is an adaptable, well-armed, and fast-learning institution; it will swiftly learn the tactics required to tackle the hidden bunkers of Hizballah. Fourth, politics and diplomacy have yet to kick in, as they inevitably will. The Europeans will soon remember that the one thing they can wholly agree on for the region is that Iran's nuclear ambitions must be curbed.