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Source: https://critiqueanddigest.substack.com/p/will-there-be-a-phase-two-ceasefire
Will Hamas Disarm and Relinquish Power?
(Substack) Hussein Aboubakr Mansour - Two years of relentless war, saturation coverage of atrocity, and waves of protests that unsettled Western cities had left the world exhausted. For Israelis and Gazans alike, the ceasefire brings an overdue reprieve. The agreement signed is not a peace accord; it is the first phase of a provisional and conditional ceasefire. One provision casts a long shadow over the entire plan. It demands that Hamas disarm, relinquish power, and commit to "peaceful coexistence" with Israel - terms that effectively require the movement's self-abolition. To disarm is to cease to exist. If Hamas refuses to comply with these terms, it is difficult to imagine any Arab state committing personnel for policing, peacekeeping, or administration, or investing significant capital in a situation that could unravel at any moment. Yet without demilitarization and governance clarity, even generous donors will avoid underwriting assets that could be cratered in the next escalation. The writer is an Egyptian-American author and researcher at the Institute for the Study of Global Antisemitism and Policy (ISGAP) in Washington.