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Source: https://jcpa.org/trumps-sharm-el-sheikh-doctrine-containment-over-collapse-in-the-new-iran-equation/
Trump's Doctrine for Iran: Containment over Regime Change
(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani - We must acknowledge a sobering reality: If regime change in Iran was ever a viable policy instrument in the post-1979 context, its prospects have probably been materially diminished. Economic sanctions, a humiliating military defeat, spectacular proxy setbacks in Syria and Lebanon, and growing internal dissent have left Iran exposed, vulnerable, and profoundly isolated on the global stage. President Trump's halting Israeli jets en route to "take out" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - framed as a deliberate pivot away from escalation and final regime collapse - reflected a calculated aversion to the chaos of Iraq, Afghanistan, or Libya. Absent a viable alternative ready to govern 90 million people, any forced collapse might fracture Iran into sectarian fiefdoms, destabilize the region's oil arteries, and invite opportunistic intrusions by all sorts of rogue elements. Neither Washington nor Jerusalem nor the Sunni Arab states harbor the appetite for that. The exiled opposition remains vocal, but lacks the inclusive, pluralist leadership capable of galvanizing Iran's fragmented society. In this void, policymakers in Washington, Jerusalem, and most European capitals have reached a tacit consensus that containment, rather than collapse, may now be the preferred operative paradigm. Karim Sajadpour's recent Foreign Affairs analysis amplifies this recalibration. He portrays Iran's regime as brittle yet durable, exposed abroad, but still commanding repressive might at home. President Trump's approach substitutes pressure for confrontation - a formula that combines military encirclement, financial strangulation, and diplomatic isolation with calibrated outreach. In Trump's view, this isn't appeasement. The new containment doctrine seeks to freeze the battlefield - a status quo deterrence that extracts verifiable concessions on missiles, proxies, and enrichment without plunging the region into chaos. Yet for ordinary Iranians, this policy extends economic suffocation and postpones dreams of liberation; for the opposition in exile, it will feel like betrayal. Still, no foreign actor can midwife Iran's transformation. Only Iranians themselves possess the agency and collective will to reshape their political destiny. Sustainable transformation in Iran will not come from bombardments or sanctions, but from the soil of indigenous resolve. The writer is an international strategic communications professional.