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The Iranian Islamist Bloc Has Been Weakened, but the Sunni Islamist Alliance Has Grown Stronger
(Wall Street Journal) Jonathan Spyer - After two years of war, it becomes clear that the battles haven't led to a fundamental strategic transformation of the region. The balance of power between existing power blocs has been somewhat altered, but no one has faced total defeat, with the notable exception of the Assad regime in Syria. The war of the past two years consisted of a clash between the Iran-led regional alliance and Israel, with crucial support from the U.S. The result is that Iran and its allies have been bloodied but not destroyed. Iran itself was pounded by Israeli and American ordnance, which it proved unable to divert. Its nuclear program has been damaged and its centers of governance attacked. Its efforts to strike at Israel proved generally ineffectual. Lebanese Hizbullah's historic leadership is decimated, its missile array largely destroyed, and many of its midlevel commanders killed. The Yemeni Houthis have been severely mauled by Israeli air power, with little to show for their many attempts to attack the Jewish state. The Iraqi Shiite militias, after some drone and rocket attacks on U.S. forces, scaled back. Hamas and Islamic Jihad suffered enormous losses and ceded most of Gaza. In all these cases, recovery and rebuilding are underway. The Sunni Islamist alliance, whose main components are Turkey and Qatar, appears to have played a crucial role in cajoling Hamas to accept the Trump plan and the Gaza ceasefire. It did so not to secure a lasting peace, but to ensure Hamas's survival. The Sunni Islamists of Gaza are a natural and comfortable ally of this bloc, whose outlook they share in all essentials. In the Middle East, one Islamist bloc, that of the Iranians, has been considerably weakened. Another, that of Turkey and Qatar, has grown stronger. The contest is set to continue. The writer is director of research at the Middle East Forum and editor of Middle East Quarterly.