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If War Returns, Israel Aims to Finish the Job
(Jewish Chronicle-UK) Prof. Kobi Michael - Since the ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah on Nov. 27, 2024, and in the spirit of the side understandings with the U.S., Israel has acted steadily and resolutely to thwart Hizbullah's efforts to rearm and to shape new rules of the game. Israel will not accommodate or contain Hizbullah's attempts to rebuild. It treats the group's intentions and declarations as serious threats even in its weakened state. Israel has maintained military positions at five sites in southern Lebanon and reserved full operational freedom to counter any attempt by Hizbullah to reconstitute its strength - a move Israel regards as a breach of the agreement. The border zone remains deliberately depopulated; Shiite towns close to the frontier have been kept empty and their residents denied return. Hizbullah is trying to restore its standing, with the help of its patron Iran. Hizbullah remains Iran's last chance to restore its regional status and rebuild deterrence against Israel. Israel therefore proceeds with determination, perseverance and vigilance, preparing both to deter and, if necessary, to escalate. If fighting resumes, Hizbullah will face an army that is trained, battle-hardened, well-equipped, and no longer distracted by large-scale operations in Gaza. Should Israel be forced into a major escalation, the destruction of Hizbullah would almost certainly become the principal war aim - and Israel would likely find partners including the Lebanese government and Syria who view such a campaign as an opportunity to complete a long-needed regional realignment. The writer is a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.