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November 4, 2025       Share:    

Source: https://www.inss.org.il/publication/israel-hamas-agreement/

The Challenges of Implementing Phase Two of the Gaza Ceasefire Agreement

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Prof. Azar Gat - The agreement reached for the return of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas and for the cessation of the war in Gaza is an enormous achievement for Israel. It included the immediate release of all living hostages, and a demilitarization clause approved by the regional partners, even though Hamas avoided accepting it. Yet bringing foreign forces into Gaza - Arab or otherwise - would make any further Israeli military operation there nearly impossible. They are also likely to do very little against Hamas, even if they wanted to - and it is doubtful how much they would want to. It is hard to envision any incoming civil administration and international forces in Gaza genuinely cooperating with Israel or being attentive to its security and other concerns. Moreover, it would hardly be surprising if the agreement's implementation were met with the familiar Middle Eastern repertoire of foot-dragging, doublespeak, and evasions by all Arab parties involved. In any case, Israel must insist on the full implementation of every clause of the agreement. However, the likelihood that the ceasefire agreement will be carried out fully and in good faith is low. The most probable scenario is that Hamas will not disarm, will act to preserve its presence, and will seek to reestablish practical control over the territory alongside any civil authority. It will replenish its ranks and make a major effort to rebuild its strength. The writer is head of the International and Executive MA Programs in Security and Diplomacy at Tel Aviv University.

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