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Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-872856
Security Experts: Hamas Disarmament Unlikely but Gaza Rehabilitation Depends on It
(Jerusalem Post) Mathilda Heller - Avi Dichter, former head of the Israel Security Agency "I don't think Hamas will volunteer to put aside its weapons; without weapons, there is no Hamas," MK Avi Dichter, former head of the Israel Security Agency, said Wednesday during the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs conference on the future of Israel and Gaza. Therefore, it is more likely that Israel will be forced to disarm the group through military means. "In this region, what doesn't go with force, goes with extra force." Nevertheless, Dichter predicted that "Gaza will not be dominated by the Palestinian Authority, and Gaza will not be dominated by Hamas." Moreover, Gazans will not see the inside of the State of Israel for "two generations at least, only in photos." The rebuilding of Gaza depends on the rehabilitation of the people of Gaza, he argued. He recalled how, on Oct. 7, 2023, the third wave of people to enter Israel were "so-called uninvolved Gazan civilians, something which in normal culture we can't even imagine. They applauded when the Israeli hostages were kidnapped to Gaza," saying that the radical ideology and desire for jihad in Gaza remain strong. "The main message of our region is if you are weak, you will disappear. If you are small and weak, you will disappear much faster. We are small, but we don't want to be weak. We don't have the option of losing." Oded Ailam, former head of the Mossad Counterterror Division Oded Ailam, former head of the Mossad Counterterror Division, said, "People say that to change Gaza you must change beliefs," but such statements are "useless." "Beliefs are like tattoos. You cannot erase them with speeches. You have to change the incentive environment that causes those beliefs to prevail. And if we have some lessons from the real world, it's that ideas don't kill, but capacity kills, which means the first and the only thing that we have to do is to somehow dismantle the capacity of the Palestinians in Gaza to kill." Ailam said there were hardly any examples in the modern era of Islamic terrorist groups that were willing to disarm. More common is the situation with the Houthis in Yemen and Hizbullah in Lebanon, where agreements are reached but the terror groups keep their weapons. However, such an agreement cannot be allowed in Gaza. Otherwise, there's no chance for any entity in Gaza to replace Hamas. Regarding disarmament, Ailam said: "I don't see any way that external forces from America, from Egypt, from the Emirates will do it....So I'm pretty much skeptical of the next phase of the Trump agreement. It's not an agreement, it's a letter of intent." "If Israel and the United States allow Turkey and Qatar to have a major force within Gaza, you can be sure that Hamas would not be dismantled. We have a major problem right now because this American administration wants [Turkey and Qatar in Gaza] because of their important part in achieving the deal. But the payment will be paid by Israel." "Gaza is the only place on earth where the Muslim Brotherhood has managed to take governance of a real state. However, Gaza is not their goal, it's not their aspiration. They want to be everywhere - in Madrid, Dearborn, Paris....Gaza is just their start-up."