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The Consequences of the 12-Day Israel-Iran War
(Foreign Policy Research Institute) Saeid Golkar - The 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025 accelerated the regime's loss of strategic coherence, leaving Iran vulnerable to future crises. The war transformed a 45-year proxy struggle into direct confrontation. Despite the Iranian government's propaganda, the war was a humiliating defeat. It exposed the Revolutionary Guards' structural weaknesses and demonstrated Israel's technological superiority. Over the last four decades, the Islamic Republic's leadership has lost its ability to learn, adapt, and govern effectively, despite maintaining coercive power. The Iranian regime has relied heavily on ideology, patronage, and repression rather than strategy and competence. Government positions are filled based on loyalty, rather than skill, eroding effectiveness. Israeli and U.S. precision strikes severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities, weapons depots, and command centers, setting back Iran's nuclear program by years while simultaneously exposing glaring weaknesses in its air defense and command structures. The hundreds of billions of dollars that the Islamic Republic spent on its nuclear program disappeared in minutes. The deaths of more than 30 senior commanders, tens of scientists, and hundreds of IRGC personnel eroded the credibility of the regime. The writer is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.